and so it continues. . .

I have previously written about the pattern of new shops opening and then massive drops twice a month. 😶 Many people were reluctant to believe it or discuss it, like they didn't want to know it was happening and they didn't want to discuss or propose the causes or reasons behind it.  I have been curious about the yo-yoing of the # of shops the whole time I have been on etsy. 😏

I found it shady and questionable when etsy suddenly decided to change the definition of "active shop" and what was shown. I have found it hard to believe that 1,000 - 2,000 shops open nearly every day, I mean damn where do all these people come from? 😵

Then it became a clear pattern of build build build plummet. After some discussion I have come to lean towards a few theories. First that etsy marks and collects a list of accounts and closes them all at once, this makes some sense as it condenses certain work functions to just a couple of days a month. Second is that many of these are based on unpaid bills, due to the regular monthly nature and the day(s) of the month of the clearing out this is a real possibility. Finally, it is caused by regular infringement sweeps, like the disney department files all it's take-downs on the same 1 day each month which doesn't seem as likely when you phrase it like that. 😄

Whatever the reason, the fact is twice a month there are huge drops in the number of shops shown on site. 

2,995,671 shops found for  1/01/2020
2,997,061 shops found for  1/02/2020
2,999,082 shops found for  1/03/2020
3,001,046 shops found for  1/04/2020
3,003,213 shops found for  1/05/2020
3,005,961 shops found for  1/06/2020       -21,648
2,984,313 shops found for  1/07/2020
2,985,204 shops found for  1/08/2020  *same 2 days in a row
2,985,204 shops found for  1/09/2020    so rare
2,992,406 shops found for  1/10/2020
2,994,585 shops found for  1/11/2020
2,997,054 shops found for  1/12/2020
2,999,695 shops found for  1/13/2020
3,002,374 shops found for  1/14/2020
3,008,821 shops found for  1/17/2020
3,010,880 shops found for  1/18/2020
3,013,094 shops found for  1/19/2020
3,015,878 shops found for  1/20/2020
3,018,515 shops found for  1/21/2020     -7,581
3,010,934 shops found for  1/22/2020

The last time I posted about this I was accused of "fear-mongering" however it is not my purpose, I simply noticed an oddity and wanted to come up with theories to explain it. 

just 3 weeks. . .

The upcoming vending event is just 3 weeks away.  😎

Winter Valentine Vendor Event page

I have ordered gift boxes and shopping bags because the event is being held in a Mall so I am guessing people will be expecting a way to carry off their purchases.  😇  

I am planning my display set up and what inventory I am taking. I'll have tables for bracelet bars and necklace stands and the binder of small trees. I might end up with art in crates and the bigger trees in their tote.  😐  I would like an upright display but I'm not sure about my wire walls they are large and heavy. I am also considering just a standing/leaning sheet of metal for the fridge magnets but again large and heavy.  😏  

I am considering renting a larger vehicle so the large problem is reduced but that still leaves the heavy since I will be alone, if I can't lift and set it up myself I won't take it. 😕 The good news is my folding tables are 6' and the booth space is 6' deep by 10' wide so I can have multiple tables easily, although I'm still undecided on how exactly it will be set up. 😵  

I think I've found the table cover/skirts I am going to buy, now I have to decide what color and how many (2 or 3).  I have been thinking 2 tables along the side and an open space but I have 3 tables and even if I only use 2 having an extra cover in case one of them is damaged or faulty seems like a good idea.  😉 I am leaning towards blue just because it's my favorite color and a lot of my sale graphics and etsy shop banners have always used blue. I think I need a sign of some kind but I don't know.  I do know I need to print more business cards. 😊

Valentine's Sale. . .

Pre-Valentine's Day Sale 15% off select jewelry

starts tomorrow 1/17/2020

I made a new sale graphic and banners a couple of weeks ago but my laptop went stupid 2 days ago and now I'm using a different one and I can't find the damn things on my memory card.  😔   I found the new banner but not the sale graphic for facebook and instagram, so I'm using last years. 😏  

I'm going to do it. . .

I have decided to take the leap and vend at the Winter Valentine event at the Meadows shopping center on February 8th. 😦  Now am nervous and working on a list of all the things I need to buy, pack, remember. I need new table covers as the event requires full length to the floor on 3 sides. I need to go over all my jewelry display stands and decide which ones to take and what will go on them and definitely lint-roller the leather fuzzies off. 😄  

Since my large wire rack walls won't fit in my car I need to come up with some other form of upright display for wire trees and art. 

Since it's a Valentine theme event and many things will be bought as gifts I supposed I'll need to pack a bunch of gift boxes and pretty wrapping stuff.  😏  I guess that means I should go make some bows and prep some pre-made gift wrap boxes. 

Some many things to think about and lists to make. 😉
Check out the event's Facebook page and let us know if you are coming

It's not for everyone. . .

Being a small business owner is not for everyone, it's constant work and worry and worrying about work. 😏

Often it feels like there are not enough hours in the day to do all the things you need to do, want to do, have to do. ~sigh~  Having a home life and family and pets all just add layers of other things that you have and need to do on top of the business things.  😕  Even on my most productive days the to-do list never gets any shorter, that sometimes leads to depression and anxiety.  However, I work through those things and "just keep swimming"𝅘𝅥𝅘𝅥𝅮𝅗𝅥𝅘𝅥𝅰𝅘𝅥𝅯𝅘𝅥 even though it seems to be all up stream most of the time. ~LOL~  

Yesterday I had an order for 3 wire trees ~yay~ which is great but I only had 2 new ones ready to list so. . .😅 in the battle to build inventory I lost ground.  

Sometimes I envy larger shops with simpler products that get hundreds of orders a week, but the moment passes and honestly there is quite literally no way I could ever produce that much.  The things I make from the chainmaille and wire trees to paintings all take several hours per piece. 😏  So there are not enough hours in the day for me to make the large quantities of any one thing, it's just math. There are some chain patterns that I can make fairly quickly but some of the more intricate ones a single bracelet can take me all day or all of the hours of the day that I can dedicate to making a thing instead of cleaning the house and cooking dinner and doing all those other every day life things.  

I am considering a vending opportunity, of course, there are pros and cons, it's the Saturday before Valentine's in a Mall so the sales potential is pretty great but it's a whole Saturday away from my husband. The table is only $30 for the day so even a single sale could cover that.  It's a bring your own tables and chair situation which can be tricky for me going alone in my tiny car. ~LOL~  

I want to go but a whole day away from home on a weekend means there will be tons of other stuff that I can't get done. 😏 

I'm not crazy. . .the purge is real.

Ok, so I am a bit crazy, OCD overly observant, it's the obsessive part of the OCD.  I started tracking the number of shops on etsy out of curiosity and basically just for fun. 😏 Notice that early on there are multiple entries for the same day, I wondered how accurate it was, how often it updated, it appears to be pretty live.  After a while it just became part of my morning coffee routine to check and record the number because, OCD folks. 😊

However, I now have a 10 month data set that shows some disturbing patterns.  At first I was all about how can there be so many new shops opening every day, just volume wise because it seemed crazy and unrealistic to me that hundreds and even thousands of shops opened every day.😮 Then I noticed the occasional massive drop and initially thought infringement sweeps, etsy purging abandoned long inactive shops, tons of closures for not being handmade or unpaid bills or other rules violations?

Then there was the mid-year mindfuck when the number magically doubled over night and the only thing I can think is etsy changed the definition of "active".(hey they changed the definition of handmade so why not?)  It took me a while to figure out but it is obvious now because if you know how to look you can clearly see that tons of the shops now shown are empty and inactive and have no listings for sale. 😐 That was a dirty trick to fudge the numbers I'm assuming for the benefit of the board and shareholders who are too ignorant to know that they are being given bogus data. 

1,431,736 shops found for  4/08/2019
1,432,532 shops found for 4/08/2019
1,433,244 shops found for 4/08/2019
1,434,903 shops found for 4/09/2019
1,436,565 shops found for 4/11/2019
1,436,683 shops found for 4/11/2019
1,436,999 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,085 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,502 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,492 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,416 shops found for 4/13/2019
1,437,639 shops found for 4/13/2019
1,438,722 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,439,032 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,439,568 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,444,000 shops found for 4/18/2019
1,444,468 shops found for 4/19/2019
1,445,521 shops found for 4/20/2019
1,446,456 shops found for 4/21/2019      -5,636
1,440,820 shops found for 4/22/2019
1,443,835 shops found for 4/23/2019
1,445,923 shops found for 4/24/2019
1,447,281 shops found for 4/25/2019
1,448,442 shops found for 4/26/2019
1,449,483 shops found for 4/26/2019
1,449,775 shops found for 4/27/2019
1,451,368 shops found for 4/28/2019
1,453,318 shops found for 4/29/2019
1,454,616 shops found for 4/30/2019
1,457,000 shops found for 5/01/2019
1,459,188 shops found for 5/02/2019
1,459,238 shops found for 5/02/2019
1,459,252 shops found for 5/03/2019
1,459,353 shops found for 5/03/2019
1,459,555 shops found for 5/04/2019
1,460,677 shops found for 5/05/2019
1,461,131 shops found for 5/05/2019
1,463,340 shops found for 5/06/2019        -19,078
1,444,262 shops found for 5/07/2019
1,444,913 shops found for 5/07/2019
1,447,195 shops found for 5/08/2019
1,447,855 shops found for 5/08/2019
1,448,321 shops found for 5/09/2019
1,449,452 shops found for 5/10/2019
1,450,218 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,450,753 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,451,103 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,451,581 shops found for 5/12/2019
1,453,133 shops found for 5/13/2019
1,454,770 shops found for 5/14/2019
1,454,949 shops found for 5/14/2019
1,455,949 shops found for 5/15/2019
1,456,139 shops found for 5/15/2019       -11,171 * anomaly out of date range
1,444,968 shops found for 5/16/2019
1,445,948 shops found for 5/17/2019
1,447,179 shops found for 5/18/2019
1,449,498 shops found for 5/20/2019
1,450,086 shops found for 5/20/2019
1,451,002 shops found for 5/20/2019       -5,525
1,445,477 shops found for 5/22/2019
1,446,293 shops found for 5/22/2019
1,447,452 shops found for 5/23/2019
1,448,717 shops found for 5/25/2019
1,449,713 shops found for 5/26/2019
1,451,418 shops found for 5/27/2019
1,452,040 shops found for 5/27/2019
1,453,450 shops found for 5/28/2019
1,455,033 shops found for 5/29/2019
1,456,251 shops found for 5/30/2019
1,456,753 shops found for 5/31/2019
1,456,977 shops found for 5/31/2019
1,458,354 shops found for 6/01/2019
1,460,266 shops found for 6/01/2019      -383 * anomaly out of date range
1,459,883 shops found for 6/02/2019
1,461,527 shops found for 6/04/2019      -12,977 * I was on vacay the missing week
1,448,550 shops found for 6/11/2019
1,449,598 shops found for 6/12/2019
1,450,520 shops found for 6/13/2019
1,452,135 shops found for 6/16/2019
1,454,033 shops found for 6/17/2019
1,455,537 shops found for 6/18/2019
1,456,492 shops found for 6/19/2019
1,457,072 shops found for 6/20/2019
1,457,605 shops found for 6/21/2019     -6,369
1,451,236 shops found for 6/23/2019
1,453,043 shops found for 6/24/2019
1,454,631 shops found for 6/25/2019
1,455,628 shops found for 6/26/2019
1,455,738 shops found for 6/28/2019
1,456,001 shops found for 6/29/2019
1,456,634 shops found for 6/30/2019
1,459,283 shops found for 7/01/2019
1,461,264 shops found for 7/01/2019
1,461,370 shops found for 7/02/2019
1,461,373 shops found for 7/03/2019
1,461,442 shops found for 7/04/2019
1,461,405 shops found for 7/05/2019 
1,461,498 shops found for 7/06/2019     -17,584
1,443,914 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,444,578 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,445,196 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,445,671 shops found for 7/08/2019
1,447,305 shops found for 7/09/2019
1,448,089 shops found for 7/09/2019
* the magical night that the definition of "active" changed *
2,845,072 shops found for 7/10/2019
2,846,158 shops found for 7/11/2019
2,848,795 shops found for 7/13/2019
2,849,697 shops found for 7/14/2019
2,851,489 shops found for 7/15/2019
2,853,520 shops found for 7/16/2019
2,855,084 shops found for 7/17/2019
2,856,652 shops found for 7/18/2019
2,857,951 shops found for 7/19/2019
2,858,800 shops found for 7/19/2019
2,860,343 shops found for 7/21/2019     -7,301
2,853,042 shops found for 7/22/2019
2,855,582 shops found for 7/23/2019
2,857,677 shops found for 7/24/2019
2,859,632 shops found for 7/25/2019
2,860,884 shops found for 7/26/2019
2,863,335 shops found for 7/28/2019
2,865,177 shops found for 7/29/2019
2,869,239 shops found for 7/31/2019
2,870,941 shops found for 8/01/2019
2,871,976 shops found for 8/02/2019
2,873,674 shops found for 8/04/2019
2,875,178 shops found for 8/05/2019
2,876,924 shops found for 8/06/2019      -20,681
2,856,243 shops found for 8/07/2019
2,858,735 shops found for 8/08/2019
2,860,337 shops found for 8/09/2019
2,861,725 shops found for 8/10/2019
2,863,153 shops found for 8/11/2019
2,865,060 shops found for 8/12/2019
2,867,087 shops found for 8/13/2019
2,868,981 shops found for 8/14/2019
2,870,918 shops found for 8/15/2019
2,871,983 shops found for 8/16/2019
2,872,846 shops found for 8/17/2019
2,874,182 shops found for 8/18/2019
2,877,714 shops found for 8/20/2019
2,879,634 shops found for 8/21/2019     -9,711
2,869,932 shops found for 8/22/2019
2,872,171 shops found for 8/23/2019
2,873,898 shops found for 8/24/2019
2,875,086 shops found for 8/25/2019
2,876,903 shops found for 8/26/2019
2,878,813 shops found for 8/27/2019
2,880,828 shops found for 8/28/2019
2,882,690 shops found for 8/29/2019
2,883,999 shops found for 8/30/2019
2,887,304 shops found for 9/01/2019
2,890,196 shops found for 9/02/2019
2,891,834 shops found for 9/03/2019
2,893,270 shops found for 9/04/2019
2,894,823 shops found for 9/05/2019
2,896,212 shops found for 9/06/2019      -20,901
2,875,311 shops found for 9/07/2019
2,877,639 shops found for 9/08/2019
2,880,051 shops found for 9/09/2019
2,882,390 shops found for 9/10/2019
2,892,488 shops found for 9/16/2019
2,894,314 shops found for 9/17/2019
2,896,107 shops found for 9/18/2019
2,897,977 shops found for 9/19/2019
2,899,555 shops found for 9/20/2019
2,900,659 shops found for 9/21/2019      -8,321
2,892,338 shops found for 9/22/2019
2,895,146 shops found for 9/23/2019
2,897,454 shops found for 9/24/2019
2,899,483 shops found for 9/25/2019
2,901,425 shops found for 9/26/2019
2,903,264 shops found for 9/27/2019
2,904,736 shops found for 9/28/2019
2,905,915 shops found for 9/29/2019
2,908,051 shops found for 9/30/2019
2,910,275 shops found for 10/1/2019
2,910,986 shops found for 10/2/2019
2,912,505 shops found for 10/3/2019
2,914,003 shops found for 10/4/2019
2,915,265 shops found for 10/5/2019
2,916,740 shops found for 10/6/2019     -21,062
2,895,678 shops found for 10/7/2019
2,899,169 shops found for 10/8/2019
2,901,831 shops found for 10/9/2019
2,904,265 shops found for 10/10/2019
2,906,192 shops found for 10/11/2019
2,907,681 shops found for 10/12/2019
2,909,164 shops found for 10/13/2019
2,911,033 shops found for 10/14/2019
2,913,189 shops found for 10/15/2019
2,915,545 shops found for 10/16/2019
2,917,511 shops found for 10/17/2019
2,919,143 shops found for 10/18/2019
2,920,576 shops found for 10/19/2019
2,922,169 shops found for 10/20/2019
2,924,324 shops found for 10/21/2019      -7,004
2,917,320 shops found for 10/22/2019
2,920,498 shops found for 10/23/2019
2,922,527 shops found for 10/24/2019
2,924,283 shops found for 10/25/2019
2,925,514 shops found for 10/26/2019
2,926,772 shops found for 10/27/2019
2,928,867 shops found for 10/28/2019
2,930,912 shops found for 10/29/2019
2,932,944 shops found for 10/30/2019
2,934,636 shops found for 10/31/2019
2,937,511 shops found for 11/1/2019
2,939,990 shops found for 11/2/2019
2,941,324 shops found for 11/3/2019
2,943,423 shops found for 11/4/2019
2,945,367 shops found for 11/5/2019
2,947,401 shops found for 11/6/2019     -19,897
2,927,504 shops found for 11/7/2019
2,931,137 shops found for 11/8/2019
2,933,023 shops found for 11/9/2019
2,935,469 shops found for 11/10/2019
2,938,041 shops found for 11/11/2019
2,940,994 shops found for 11/12/2019
2,943,422 shops found for 11/13/2019
2,945,855 shops found for 11/14/2019
2,948,075 shops found for 11/15/2019
2,949,856 shops found for 11/16/2019
2,951,770 shops found for 11/17/2019
2,954,207 shops found for 11/18/2019
2,956,532 shops found for 11/19/2019
2,958,603 shops found for 11/20/2019
2,960,950 shops found for 11/21/2019     -7,527
2,953,423 shops found for 11/22/2019
2,955,478 shops found for 11/23/2019
2,957,418 shops found for 11/24/2019
2,960,060 shops found for 11/25/2019
2,962,702 shops found for 11/26/2019
2,964,940 shops found for 11/27/2019
2,966,897 shops found for 11/28/2019
2,968,624 shops found for 11/29/2019
2,970,334 shops found for 11/30/2019
2,973,849 shops found for 12/1/2019
2,974,875 shops found for 12/2/2019
2,977,096 shops found for 12/3/2019     -12,928  *anomaly out of date range
2,964,629 shops found for 12/4/2019 
2,974,708 shops found for 12/5/2019  magically 10,000 came back
2,977,557 shops found for 12/6/2019     -17,224
2,960,333 shops found for 12/7/2019
2,963,295 shops found for 12/8/2019
2,966,338 shops found for 12/9/2019
2,969,243 shops found for 12/10/2019
2,972,084 shops found for 12/11/2019
2,974,568 shops found for 12/12/2019
2,976,452 shops found for 12/13/2019
2,978,311 shops found for 12/14/2019
2,979,779 shops found for 12/15/2019
2,981,688 shops found for 12/16/2019
2,983,833 shops found for 12/17/2019
2,985,541 shops found for 12/18/2019
2,986,966 shops found for 12/19/2019
2,988,015 shops found for 12/20/2019
2,988,601 shops found for 12/21/2019     -8,723
2,979,878 shops found for 12/22/2019
2,981,711 shops found for 12/23/2019
2,982,754 shops found for 12/24/2019
2,983,621 shops found for 12/25/2019
2,984,771 shops found for 12/26/2019
2,986,107 shops found for 12/27/2019
2,987,763 shops found for 12/28/2019
2,989,461 shops found for 12/29/2019
2,991,461 shops found for 12/30/2019
2,993,127 shops found for 12/31/2019
2,995,671 shops found for 1/01/2020
2,997,061 shops found for 1/02/2020
2,999,082 shops found for 1/03/2020
3,001,046 shops found for 1/04/2020
3,003,213 shops found for 1/05/2020
3,005,961 shops found for 1/06/2020     -21,648
2,984,313 shops found for 1/07/2020
2,985,204 shops found for 1/08/2020


Now though looking at the larger picture there is an obvious pattern of bi-weekly massive closures, it happens on the same dates almost every month. 😕 There are a couple of anomalies where it is off by a couple of days but nearly every month 6-7 and 21-22 there is a massive drop in the number. In early December the purge came early and I recall tons of forum threads and facebook group posts of confused shop owners complaining they were closed without warning for no reason then magically with no explanation their shops were reopened. My data supports their claims on the 3rd over 12,000 shops closed/disappeared then on the 5th 10,000 of them were magically restored. That's insane!

I have no explanation for the obviously scheduled regularity of this "purge" I just see it happening over and over.  I have some theories but none of them are good. 😕

Ebb and flow. . .

There is that line in The Wizard of Oz something to the effect of "My! people come and go so quickly here."  

Well that is super true for shops on Etsy.  I track the number of shops and although I know it's a bogus number and no longer "active" shops I still record it every day.  What I have observed is that the number goes up nearly every day usually it goes up 1 to 2 Thousand.  😯  Yeah think about for a few minutes, every 24 hours or so thousands of new shops, every bloody day. 😵  I find it totally crazy and bit unbelievable to be perfectly honest. 

Recent data :

2,981,711 shops found for 12/23/2019
2,982,754 shops found for 12/24/2019
2,983,621 shops found for 12/25/2019
2,984,771 shops found for 12/26/2019
2,986,107 shops found for 12/27/2019
2,987,763 shops found for 12/28/2019
2,989,461 shops found for 12/29/2019
2,991,461 shops found for 12/30/2019
2,993,127 shops found for 12/31/2019
2,995,671 shops found for  1/01/2020
2,997,061 shops found for  1/02/2020
2,999,082 shops found for  1/03/2020
3,001,046 shops found for  1/04/2020
3,003,213 shops found for  1/05/2020
3,005,961 shops found for  1/06/2020

2,984,313 shops found for  1/07/2020

And then suddenly BAM!! -21,648 overnight. 😟  Now there are lots of explanations for why shops close, it could be people who started a shop and just got discouraged or realized just how much work it is and quit on their own, although with that large of a drop all at once, I doubt that.  It could be the results of an infringement sweep which with that volume would make sense.  It could be shops etsy closed for other violations like not really being handmade and/or not following all the rules but again the large volume all at once makes that questionable.  However, it could also be massive closures due to the new ODR and it's incredibly bogus and unfair nature.  😕  There is no real way to tell.  

Sales tax season. . .

Welcome to January, now get those taxes done!  

I know personal income taxes aren't due for months, but in my state businesses licensed for sales tax that file on an annual basis must file by January 31st.  So for me it's year-end bookkeeping catch-up and getting all my paperwork in order for my sales tax filing.  😉

I will also been working on re-working listings, changing out tags, prepping for Valentine's Day, updating shipping charges in preparation for the next USPS increase, ya' know the constant state of work of an online business. 

I have been painting and making new wire trees but I am falling behind on listing new stuff. I have several paintings finished that are not listed.  I still have some rubber chainmaille patterns that are not listed.  I have several new sets of fridge magnets not listed. 😕

The Pre-Valentine's Sale is already scheduled and I need to make new graphics, banners, and online signs for facebook, instagram, etsy, etc.  I guess I could use last year's but people might notice. 😁

Although I do still love this one. 😎