Wednesday, January 8, 2020

I'm not crazy. . .the purge is real.

Ok, so I am a bit crazy, OCD overly observant, it's the obsessive part of the OCD.  I started tracking the number of shops on etsy out of curiosity and basically just for fun. 😏 Notice that early on there are multiple entries for the same day, I wondered how accurate it was, how often it updated, it appears to be pretty live.  After a while it just became part of my morning coffee routine to check and record the number because, OCD folks. 😊

However, I now have a 10 month data set that shows some disturbing patterns.  At first I was all about how can there be so many new shops opening every day, just volume wise because it seemed crazy and unrealistic to me that hundreds and even thousands of shops opened every day.😮 Then I noticed the occasional massive drop and initially thought infringement sweeps, etsy purging abandoned long inactive shops, tons of closures for not being handmade or unpaid bills or other rules violations?

Then there was the mid-year mindfuck when the number magically doubled over night and the only thing I can think is etsy changed the definition of "active".(hey they changed the definition of handmade so why not?)  It took me a while to figure out but it is obvious now because if you know how to look you can clearly see that tons of the shops now shown are empty and inactive and have no listings for sale. 😐 That was a dirty trick to fudge the numbers I'm assuming for the benefit of the board and shareholders who are too ignorant to know that they are being given bogus data. 

1,431,736 shops found for  4/08/2019
1,432,532 shops found for 4/08/2019
1,433,244 shops found for 4/08/2019
1,434,903 shops found for 4/09/2019
1,436,565 shops found for 4/11/2019
1,436,683 shops found for 4/11/2019
1,436,999 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,085 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,502 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,492 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,416 shops found for 4/13/2019
1,437,639 shops found for 4/13/2019
1,438,722 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,439,032 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,439,568 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,444,000 shops found for 4/18/2019
1,444,468 shops found for 4/19/2019
1,445,521 shops found for 4/20/2019
1,446,456 shops found for 4/21/2019      -5,636
1,440,820 shops found for 4/22/2019
1,443,835 shops found for 4/23/2019
1,445,923 shops found for 4/24/2019
1,447,281 shops found for 4/25/2019
1,448,442 shops found for 4/26/2019
1,449,483 shops found for 4/26/2019
1,449,775 shops found for 4/27/2019
1,451,368 shops found for 4/28/2019
1,453,318 shops found for 4/29/2019
1,454,616 shops found for 4/30/2019
1,457,000 shops found for 5/01/2019
1,459,188 shops found for 5/02/2019
1,459,238 shops found for 5/02/2019
1,459,252 shops found for 5/03/2019
1,459,353 shops found for 5/03/2019
1,459,555 shops found for 5/04/2019
1,460,677 shops found for 5/05/2019
1,461,131 shops found for 5/05/2019
1,463,340 shops found for 5/06/2019        -19,078
1,444,262 shops found for 5/07/2019
1,444,913 shops found for 5/07/2019
1,447,195 shops found for 5/08/2019
1,447,855 shops found for 5/08/2019
1,448,321 shops found for 5/09/2019
1,449,452 shops found for 5/10/2019
1,450,218 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,450,753 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,451,103 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,451,581 shops found for 5/12/2019
1,453,133 shops found for 5/13/2019
1,454,770 shops found for 5/14/2019
1,454,949 shops found for 5/14/2019
1,455,949 shops found for 5/15/2019
1,456,139 shops found for 5/15/2019       -11,171 * anomaly out of date range
1,444,968 shops found for 5/16/2019
1,445,948 shops found for 5/17/2019
1,447,179 shops found for 5/18/2019
1,449,498 shops found for 5/20/2019
1,450,086 shops found for 5/20/2019
1,451,002 shops found for 5/20/2019       -5,525
1,445,477 shops found for 5/22/2019
1,446,293 shops found for 5/22/2019
1,447,452 shops found for 5/23/2019
1,448,717 shops found for 5/25/2019
1,449,713 shops found for 5/26/2019
1,451,418 shops found for 5/27/2019
1,452,040 shops found for 5/27/2019
1,453,450 shops found for 5/28/2019
1,455,033 shops found for 5/29/2019
1,456,251 shops found for 5/30/2019
1,456,753 shops found for 5/31/2019
1,456,977 shops found for 5/31/2019
1,458,354 shops found for 6/01/2019
1,460,266 shops found for 6/01/2019      -383 * anomaly out of date range
1,459,883 shops found for 6/02/2019
1,461,527 shops found for 6/04/2019      -12,977 * I was on vacay the missing week
1,448,550 shops found for 6/11/2019
1,449,598 shops found for 6/12/2019
1,450,520 shops found for 6/13/2019
1,452,135 shops found for 6/16/2019
1,454,033 shops found for 6/17/2019
1,455,537 shops found for 6/18/2019
1,456,492 shops found for 6/19/2019
1,457,072 shops found for 6/20/2019
1,457,605 shops found for 6/21/2019     -6,369
1,451,236 shops found for 6/23/2019
1,453,043 shops found for 6/24/2019
1,454,631 shops found for 6/25/2019
1,455,628 shops found for 6/26/2019
1,455,738 shops found for 6/28/2019
1,456,001 shops found for 6/29/2019
1,456,634 shops found for 6/30/2019
1,459,283 shops found for 7/01/2019
1,461,264 shops found for 7/01/2019
1,461,370 shops found for 7/02/2019
1,461,373 shops found for 7/03/2019
1,461,442 shops found for 7/04/2019
1,461,405 shops found for 7/05/2019 
1,461,498 shops found for 7/06/2019     -17,584
1,443,914 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,444,578 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,445,196 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,445,671 shops found for 7/08/2019
1,447,305 shops found for 7/09/2019
1,448,089 shops found for 7/09/2019
* the magical night that the definition of "active" changed *
2,845,072 shops found for 7/10/2019
2,846,158 shops found for 7/11/2019
2,848,795 shops found for 7/13/2019
2,849,697 shops found for 7/14/2019
2,851,489 shops found for 7/15/2019
2,853,520 shops found for 7/16/2019
2,855,084 shops found for 7/17/2019
2,856,652 shops found for 7/18/2019
2,857,951 shops found for 7/19/2019
2,858,800 shops found for 7/19/2019
2,860,343 shops found for 7/21/2019     -7,301
2,853,042 shops found for 7/22/2019
2,855,582 shops found for 7/23/2019
2,857,677 shops found for 7/24/2019
2,859,632 shops found for 7/25/2019
2,860,884 shops found for 7/26/2019
2,863,335 shops found for 7/28/2019
2,865,177 shops found for 7/29/2019
2,869,239 shops found for 7/31/2019
2,870,941 shops found for 8/01/2019
2,871,976 shops found for 8/02/2019
2,873,674 shops found for 8/04/2019
2,875,178 shops found for 8/05/2019
2,876,924 shops found for 8/06/2019      -20,681
2,856,243 shops found for 8/07/2019
2,858,735 shops found for 8/08/2019
2,860,337 shops found for 8/09/2019
2,861,725 shops found for 8/10/2019
2,863,153 shops found for 8/11/2019
2,865,060 shops found for 8/12/2019
2,867,087 shops found for 8/13/2019
2,868,981 shops found for 8/14/2019
2,870,918 shops found for 8/15/2019
2,871,983 shops found for 8/16/2019
2,872,846 shops found for 8/17/2019
2,874,182 shops found for 8/18/2019
2,877,714 shops found for 8/20/2019
2,879,634 shops found for 8/21/2019     -9,711
2,869,932 shops found for 8/22/2019
2,872,171 shops found for 8/23/2019
2,873,898 shops found for 8/24/2019
2,875,086 shops found for 8/25/2019
2,876,903 shops found for 8/26/2019
2,878,813 shops found for 8/27/2019
2,880,828 shops found for 8/28/2019
2,882,690 shops found for 8/29/2019
2,883,999 shops found for 8/30/2019
2,887,304 shops found for 9/01/2019
2,890,196 shops found for 9/02/2019
2,891,834 shops found for 9/03/2019
2,893,270 shops found for 9/04/2019
2,894,823 shops found for 9/05/2019
2,896,212 shops found for 9/06/2019      -20,901
2,875,311 shops found for 9/07/2019
2,877,639 shops found for 9/08/2019
2,880,051 shops found for 9/09/2019
2,882,390 shops found for 9/10/2019
2,892,488 shops found for 9/16/2019
2,894,314 shops found for 9/17/2019
2,896,107 shops found for 9/18/2019
2,897,977 shops found for 9/19/2019
2,899,555 shops found for 9/20/2019
2,900,659 shops found for 9/21/2019      -8,321
2,892,338 shops found for 9/22/2019
2,895,146 shops found for 9/23/2019
2,897,454 shops found for 9/24/2019
2,899,483 shops found for 9/25/2019
2,901,425 shops found for 9/26/2019
2,903,264 shops found for 9/27/2019
2,904,736 shops found for 9/28/2019
2,905,915 shops found for 9/29/2019
2,908,051 shops found for 9/30/2019
2,910,275 shops found for 10/1/2019
2,910,986 shops found for 10/2/2019
2,912,505 shops found for 10/3/2019
2,914,003 shops found for 10/4/2019
2,915,265 shops found for 10/5/2019
2,916,740 shops found for 10/6/2019     -21,062
2,895,678 shops found for 10/7/2019
2,899,169 shops found for 10/8/2019
2,901,831 shops found for 10/9/2019
2,904,265 shops found for 10/10/2019
2,906,192 shops found for 10/11/2019
2,907,681 shops found for 10/12/2019
2,909,164 shops found for 10/13/2019
2,911,033 shops found for 10/14/2019
2,913,189 shops found for 10/15/2019
2,915,545 shops found for 10/16/2019
2,917,511 shops found for 10/17/2019
2,919,143 shops found for 10/18/2019
2,920,576 shops found for 10/19/2019
2,922,169 shops found for 10/20/2019
2,924,324 shops found for 10/21/2019      -7,004
2,917,320 shops found for 10/22/2019
2,920,498 shops found for 10/23/2019
2,922,527 shops found for 10/24/2019
2,924,283 shops found for 10/25/2019
2,925,514 shops found for 10/26/2019
2,926,772 shops found for 10/27/2019
2,928,867 shops found for 10/28/2019
2,930,912 shops found for 10/29/2019
2,932,944 shops found for 10/30/2019
2,934,636 shops found for 10/31/2019
2,937,511 shops found for 11/1/2019
2,939,990 shops found for 11/2/2019
2,941,324 shops found for 11/3/2019
2,943,423 shops found for 11/4/2019
2,945,367 shops found for 11/5/2019
2,947,401 shops found for 11/6/2019     -19,897
2,927,504 shops found for 11/7/2019
2,931,137 shops found for 11/8/2019
2,933,023 shops found for 11/9/2019
2,935,469 shops found for 11/10/2019
2,938,041 shops found for 11/11/2019
2,940,994 shops found for 11/12/2019
2,943,422 shops found for 11/13/2019
2,945,855 shops found for 11/14/2019
2,948,075 shops found for 11/15/2019
2,949,856 shops found for 11/16/2019
2,951,770 shops found for 11/17/2019
2,954,207 shops found for 11/18/2019
2,956,532 shops found for 11/19/2019
2,958,603 shops found for 11/20/2019
2,960,950 shops found for 11/21/2019     -7,527
2,953,423 shops found for 11/22/2019
2,955,478 shops found for 11/23/2019
2,957,418 shops found for 11/24/2019
2,960,060 shops found for 11/25/2019
2,962,702 shops found for 11/26/2019
2,964,940 shops found for 11/27/2019
2,966,897 shops found for 11/28/2019
2,968,624 shops found for 11/29/2019
2,970,334 shops found for 11/30/2019
2,973,849 shops found for 12/1/2019
2,974,875 shops found for 12/2/2019
2,977,096 shops found for 12/3/2019     -12,928  *anomaly out of date range
2,964,629 shops found for 12/4/2019 
2,974,708 shops found for 12/5/2019  magically 10,000 came back
2,977,557 shops found for 12/6/2019     -17,224
2,960,333 shops found for 12/7/2019
2,963,295 shops found for 12/8/2019
2,966,338 shops found for 12/9/2019
2,969,243 shops found for 12/10/2019
2,972,084 shops found for 12/11/2019
2,974,568 shops found for 12/12/2019
2,976,452 shops found for 12/13/2019
2,978,311 shops found for 12/14/2019
2,979,779 shops found for 12/15/2019
2,981,688 shops found for 12/16/2019
2,983,833 shops found for 12/17/2019
2,985,541 shops found for 12/18/2019
2,986,966 shops found for 12/19/2019
2,988,015 shops found for 12/20/2019
2,988,601 shops found for 12/21/2019     -8,723
2,979,878 shops found for 12/22/2019
2,981,711 shops found for 12/23/2019
2,982,754 shops found for 12/24/2019
2,983,621 shops found for 12/25/2019
2,984,771 shops found for 12/26/2019
2,986,107 shops found for 12/27/2019
2,987,763 shops found for 12/28/2019
2,989,461 shops found for 12/29/2019
2,991,461 shops found for 12/30/2019
2,993,127 shops found for 12/31/2019
2,995,671 shops found for 1/01/2020
2,997,061 shops found for 1/02/2020
2,999,082 shops found for 1/03/2020
3,001,046 shops found for 1/04/2020
3,003,213 shops found for 1/05/2020
3,005,961 shops found for 1/06/2020     -21,648
2,984,313 shops found for 1/07/2020
2,985,204 shops found for 1/08/2020


Now though looking at the larger picture there is an obvious pattern of bi-weekly massive closures, it happens on the same dates almost every month. 😕 There are a couple of anomalies where it is off by a couple of days but nearly every month 6-7 and 21-22 there is a massive drop in the number. In early December the purge came early and I recall tons of forum threads and facebook group posts of confused shop owners complaining they were closed without warning for no reason then magically with no explanation their shops were reopened. My data supports their claims on the 3rd over 12,000 shops closed/disappeared then on the 5th 10,000 of them were magically restored. That's insane!

I have no explanation for the obviously scheduled regularity of this "purge" I just see it happening over and over.  I have some theories but none of them are good. 😕



1 comment:

  1. If you don't pay your bill on time they close your shop on the 21st and 22nd for non-payment there's part of your pattern I don't know about the stuff at the beginning of the month

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