I'm not crazy. . .the purge is real.

Ok, so I am a bit crazy, OCD overly observant, it's the obsessive part of the OCD.  I started tracking the number of shops on etsy out of curiosity and basically just for fun. 😏 Notice that early on there are multiple entries for the same day, I wondered how accurate it was, how often it updated, it appears to be pretty live.  After a while it just became part of my morning coffee routine to check and record the number because, OCD folks. 😊

However, I now have a 10 month data set that shows some disturbing patterns.  At first I was all about how can there be so many new shops opening every day, just volume wise because it seemed crazy and unrealistic to me that hundreds and even thousands of shops opened every day.😮 Then I noticed the occasional massive drop and initially thought infringement sweeps, etsy purging abandoned long inactive shops, tons of closures for not being handmade or unpaid bills or other rules violations?

Then there was the mid-year mindfuck when the number magically doubled over night and the only thing I can think is etsy changed the definition of "active".(hey they changed the definition of handmade so why not?)  It took me a while to figure out but it is obvious now because if you know how to look you can clearly see that tons of the shops now shown are empty and inactive and have no listings for sale. 😐 That was a dirty trick to fudge the numbers I'm assuming for the benefit of the board and shareholders who are too ignorant to know that they are being given bogus data. 

1,431,736 shops found for  4/08/2019
1,432,532 shops found for 4/08/2019
1,433,244 shops found for 4/08/2019
1,434,903 shops found for 4/09/2019
1,436,565 shops found for 4/11/2019
1,436,683 shops found for 4/11/2019
1,436,999 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,085 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,502 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,492 shops found for 4/12/2019
1,437,416 shops found for 4/13/2019
1,437,639 shops found for 4/13/2019
1,438,722 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,439,032 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,439,568 shops found for 4/14/2019
1,444,000 shops found for 4/18/2019
1,444,468 shops found for 4/19/2019
1,445,521 shops found for 4/20/2019
1,446,456 shops found for 4/21/2019      -5,636
1,440,820 shops found for 4/22/2019
1,443,835 shops found for 4/23/2019
1,445,923 shops found for 4/24/2019
1,447,281 shops found for 4/25/2019
1,448,442 shops found for 4/26/2019
1,449,483 shops found for 4/26/2019
1,449,775 shops found for 4/27/2019
1,451,368 shops found for 4/28/2019
1,453,318 shops found for 4/29/2019
1,454,616 shops found for 4/30/2019
1,457,000 shops found for 5/01/2019
1,459,188 shops found for 5/02/2019
1,459,238 shops found for 5/02/2019
1,459,252 shops found for 5/03/2019
1,459,353 shops found for 5/03/2019
1,459,555 shops found for 5/04/2019
1,460,677 shops found for 5/05/2019
1,461,131 shops found for 5/05/2019
1,463,340 shops found for 5/06/2019        -19,078
1,444,262 shops found for 5/07/2019
1,444,913 shops found for 5/07/2019
1,447,195 shops found for 5/08/2019
1,447,855 shops found for 5/08/2019
1,448,321 shops found for 5/09/2019
1,449,452 shops found for 5/10/2019
1,450,218 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,450,753 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,451,103 shops found for 5/11/2019
1,451,581 shops found for 5/12/2019
1,453,133 shops found for 5/13/2019
1,454,770 shops found for 5/14/2019
1,454,949 shops found for 5/14/2019
1,455,949 shops found for 5/15/2019
1,456,139 shops found for 5/15/2019       -11,171 * anomaly out of date range
1,444,968 shops found for 5/16/2019
1,445,948 shops found for 5/17/2019
1,447,179 shops found for 5/18/2019
1,449,498 shops found for 5/20/2019
1,450,086 shops found for 5/20/2019
1,451,002 shops found for 5/20/2019       -5,525
1,445,477 shops found for 5/22/2019
1,446,293 shops found for 5/22/2019
1,447,452 shops found for 5/23/2019
1,448,717 shops found for 5/25/2019
1,449,713 shops found for 5/26/2019
1,451,418 shops found for 5/27/2019
1,452,040 shops found for 5/27/2019
1,453,450 shops found for 5/28/2019
1,455,033 shops found for 5/29/2019
1,456,251 shops found for 5/30/2019
1,456,753 shops found for 5/31/2019
1,456,977 shops found for 5/31/2019
1,458,354 shops found for 6/01/2019
1,460,266 shops found for 6/01/2019      -383 * anomaly out of date range
1,459,883 shops found for 6/02/2019
1,461,527 shops found for 6/04/2019      -12,977 * I was on vacay the missing week
1,448,550 shops found for 6/11/2019
1,449,598 shops found for 6/12/2019
1,450,520 shops found for 6/13/2019
1,452,135 shops found for 6/16/2019
1,454,033 shops found for 6/17/2019
1,455,537 shops found for 6/18/2019
1,456,492 shops found for 6/19/2019
1,457,072 shops found for 6/20/2019
1,457,605 shops found for 6/21/2019     -6,369
1,451,236 shops found for 6/23/2019
1,453,043 shops found for 6/24/2019
1,454,631 shops found for 6/25/2019
1,455,628 shops found for 6/26/2019
1,455,738 shops found for 6/28/2019
1,456,001 shops found for 6/29/2019
1,456,634 shops found for 6/30/2019
1,459,283 shops found for 7/01/2019
1,461,264 shops found for 7/01/2019
1,461,370 shops found for 7/02/2019
1,461,373 shops found for 7/03/2019
1,461,442 shops found for 7/04/2019
1,461,405 shops found for 7/05/2019 
1,461,498 shops found for 7/06/2019     -17,584
1,443,914 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,444,578 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,445,196 shops found for 7/07/2019
1,445,671 shops found for 7/08/2019
1,447,305 shops found for 7/09/2019
1,448,089 shops found for 7/09/2019
* the magical night that the definition of "active" changed *
2,845,072 shops found for 7/10/2019
2,846,158 shops found for 7/11/2019
2,848,795 shops found for 7/13/2019
2,849,697 shops found for 7/14/2019
2,851,489 shops found for 7/15/2019
2,853,520 shops found for 7/16/2019
2,855,084 shops found for 7/17/2019
2,856,652 shops found for 7/18/2019
2,857,951 shops found for 7/19/2019
2,858,800 shops found for 7/19/2019
2,860,343 shops found for 7/21/2019     -7,301
2,853,042 shops found for 7/22/2019
2,855,582 shops found for 7/23/2019
2,857,677 shops found for 7/24/2019
2,859,632 shops found for 7/25/2019
2,860,884 shops found for 7/26/2019
2,863,335 shops found for 7/28/2019
2,865,177 shops found for 7/29/2019
2,869,239 shops found for 7/31/2019
2,870,941 shops found for 8/01/2019
2,871,976 shops found for 8/02/2019
2,873,674 shops found for 8/04/2019
2,875,178 shops found for 8/05/2019
2,876,924 shops found for 8/06/2019      -20,681
2,856,243 shops found for 8/07/2019
2,858,735 shops found for 8/08/2019
2,860,337 shops found for 8/09/2019
2,861,725 shops found for 8/10/2019
2,863,153 shops found for 8/11/2019
2,865,060 shops found for 8/12/2019
2,867,087 shops found for 8/13/2019
2,868,981 shops found for 8/14/2019
2,870,918 shops found for 8/15/2019
2,871,983 shops found for 8/16/2019
2,872,846 shops found for 8/17/2019
2,874,182 shops found for 8/18/2019
2,877,714 shops found for 8/20/2019
2,879,634 shops found for 8/21/2019     -9,711
2,869,932 shops found for 8/22/2019
2,872,171 shops found for 8/23/2019
2,873,898 shops found for 8/24/2019
2,875,086 shops found for 8/25/2019
2,876,903 shops found for 8/26/2019
2,878,813 shops found for 8/27/2019
2,880,828 shops found for 8/28/2019
2,882,690 shops found for 8/29/2019
2,883,999 shops found for 8/30/2019
2,887,304 shops found for 9/01/2019
2,890,196 shops found for 9/02/2019
2,891,834 shops found for 9/03/2019
2,893,270 shops found for 9/04/2019
2,894,823 shops found for 9/05/2019
2,896,212 shops found for 9/06/2019      -20,901
2,875,311 shops found for 9/07/2019
2,877,639 shops found for 9/08/2019
2,880,051 shops found for 9/09/2019
2,882,390 shops found for 9/10/2019
2,892,488 shops found for 9/16/2019
2,894,314 shops found for 9/17/2019
2,896,107 shops found for 9/18/2019
2,897,977 shops found for 9/19/2019
2,899,555 shops found for 9/20/2019
2,900,659 shops found for 9/21/2019      -8,321
2,892,338 shops found for 9/22/2019
2,895,146 shops found for 9/23/2019
2,897,454 shops found for 9/24/2019
2,899,483 shops found for 9/25/2019
2,901,425 shops found for 9/26/2019
2,903,264 shops found for 9/27/2019
2,904,736 shops found for 9/28/2019
2,905,915 shops found for 9/29/2019
2,908,051 shops found for 9/30/2019
2,910,275 shops found for 10/1/2019
2,910,986 shops found for 10/2/2019
2,912,505 shops found for 10/3/2019
2,914,003 shops found for 10/4/2019
2,915,265 shops found for 10/5/2019
2,916,740 shops found for 10/6/2019     -21,062
2,895,678 shops found for 10/7/2019
2,899,169 shops found for 10/8/2019
2,901,831 shops found for 10/9/2019
2,904,265 shops found for 10/10/2019
2,906,192 shops found for 10/11/2019
2,907,681 shops found for 10/12/2019
2,909,164 shops found for 10/13/2019
2,911,033 shops found for 10/14/2019
2,913,189 shops found for 10/15/2019
2,915,545 shops found for 10/16/2019
2,917,511 shops found for 10/17/2019
2,919,143 shops found for 10/18/2019
2,920,576 shops found for 10/19/2019
2,922,169 shops found for 10/20/2019
2,924,324 shops found for 10/21/2019      -7,004
2,917,320 shops found for 10/22/2019
2,920,498 shops found for 10/23/2019
2,922,527 shops found for 10/24/2019
2,924,283 shops found for 10/25/2019
2,925,514 shops found for 10/26/2019
2,926,772 shops found for 10/27/2019
2,928,867 shops found for 10/28/2019
2,930,912 shops found for 10/29/2019
2,932,944 shops found for 10/30/2019
2,934,636 shops found for 10/31/2019
2,937,511 shops found for 11/1/2019
2,939,990 shops found for 11/2/2019
2,941,324 shops found for 11/3/2019
2,943,423 shops found for 11/4/2019
2,945,367 shops found for 11/5/2019
2,947,401 shops found for 11/6/2019     -19,897
2,927,504 shops found for 11/7/2019
2,931,137 shops found for 11/8/2019
2,933,023 shops found for 11/9/2019
2,935,469 shops found for 11/10/2019
2,938,041 shops found for 11/11/2019
2,940,994 shops found for 11/12/2019
2,943,422 shops found for 11/13/2019
2,945,855 shops found for 11/14/2019
2,948,075 shops found for 11/15/2019
2,949,856 shops found for 11/16/2019
2,951,770 shops found for 11/17/2019
2,954,207 shops found for 11/18/2019
2,956,532 shops found for 11/19/2019
2,958,603 shops found for 11/20/2019
2,960,950 shops found for 11/21/2019     -7,527
2,953,423 shops found for 11/22/2019
2,955,478 shops found for 11/23/2019
2,957,418 shops found for 11/24/2019
2,960,060 shops found for 11/25/2019
2,962,702 shops found for 11/26/2019
2,964,940 shops found for 11/27/2019
2,966,897 shops found for 11/28/2019
2,968,624 shops found for 11/29/2019
2,970,334 shops found for 11/30/2019
2,973,849 shops found for 12/1/2019
2,974,875 shops found for 12/2/2019
2,977,096 shops found for 12/3/2019     -12,928  *anomaly out of date range
2,964,629 shops found for 12/4/2019 
2,974,708 shops found for 12/5/2019  magically 10,000 came back
2,977,557 shops found for 12/6/2019     -17,224
2,960,333 shops found for 12/7/2019
2,963,295 shops found for 12/8/2019
2,966,338 shops found for 12/9/2019
2,969,243 shops found for 12/10/2019
2,972,084 shops found for 12/11/2019
2,974,568 shops found for 12/12/2019
2,976,452 shops found for 12/13/2019
2,978,311 shops found for 12/14/2019
2,979,779 shops found for 12/15/2019
2,981,688 shops found for 12/16/2019
2,983,833 shops found for 12/17/2019
2,985,541 shops found for 12/18/2019
2,986,966 shops found for 12/19/2019
2,988,015 shops found for 12/20/2019
2,988,601 shops found for 12/21/2019     -8,723
2,979,878 shops found for 12/22/2019
2,981,711 shops found for 12/23/2019
2,982,754 shops found for 12/24/2019
2,983,621 shops found for 12/25/2019
2,984,771 shops found for 12/26/2019
2,986,107 shops found for 12/27/2019
2,987,763 shops found for 12/28/2019
2,989,461 shops found for 12/29/2019
2,991,461 shops found for 12/30/2019
2,993,127 shops found for 12/31/2019
2,995,671 shops found for 1/01/2020
2,997,061 shops found for 1/02/2020
2,999,082 shops found for 1/03/2020
3,001,046 shops found for 1/04/2020
3,003,213 shops found for 1/05/2020
3,005,961 shops found for 1/06/2020     -21,648
2,984,313 shops found for 1/07/2020
2,985,204 shops found for 1/08/2020


Now though looking at the larger picture there is an obvious pattern of bi-weekly massive closures, it happens on the same dates almost every month. 😕 There are a couple of anomalies where it is off by a couple of days but nearly every month 6-7 and 21-22 there is a massive drop in the number. In early December the purge came early and I recall tons of forum threads and facebook group posts of confused shop owners complaining they were closed without warning for no reason then magically with no explanation their shops were reopened. My data supports their claims on the 3rd over 12,000 shops closed/disappeared then on the 5th 10,000 of them were magically restored. That's insane!

I have no explanation for the obviously scheduled regularity of this "purge" I just see it happening over and over.  I have some theories but none of them are good. 😕

Ebb and flow. . .

There is that line in The Wizard of Oz something to the effect of "My! people come and go so quickly here."  

Well that is super true for shops on Etsy.  I track the number of shops and although I know it's a bogus number and no longer "active" shops I still record it every day.  What I have observed is that the number goes up nearly every day usually it goes up 1 to 2 Thousand.  😯  Yeah think about for a few minutes, every 24 hours or so thousands of new shops, every bloody day. 😵  I find it totally crazy and bit unbelievable to be perfectly honest. 

Recent data :

2,981,711 shops found for 12/23/2019
2,982,754 shops found for 12/24/2019
2,983,621 shops found for 12/25/2019
2,984,771 shops found for 12/26/2019
2,986,107 shops found for 12/27/2019
2,987,763 shops found for 12/28/2019
2,989,461 shops found for 12/29/2019
2,991,461 shops found for 12/30/2019
2,993,127 shops found for 12/31/2019
2,995,671 shops found for  1/01/2020
2,997,061 shops found for  1/02/2020
2,999,082 shops found for  1/03/2020
3,001,046 shops found for  1/04/2020
3,003,213 shops found for  1/05/2020
3,005,961 shops found for  1/06/2020

2,984,313 shops found for  1/07/2020

And then suddenly BAM!! -21,648 overnight. 😟  Now there are lots of explanations for why shops close, it could be people who started a shop and just got discouraged or realized just how much work it is and quit on their own, although with that large of a drop all at once, I doubt that.  It could be the results of an infringement sweep which with that volume would make sense.  It could be shops etsy closed for other violations like not really being handmade and/or not following all the rules but again the large volume all at once makes that questionable.  However, it could also be massive closures due to the new ODR and it's incredibly bogus and unfair nature.  😕  There is no real way to tell.  

Sales tax season. . .

Welcome to January, now get those taxes done!  

I know personal income taxes aren't due for months, but in my state businesses licensed for sales tax that file on an annual basis must file by January 31st.  So for me it's year-end bookkeeping catch-up and getting all my paperwork in order for my sales tax filing.  😉

I will also been working on re-working listings, changing out tags, prepping for Valentine's Day, updating shipping charges in preparation for the next USPS increase, ya' know the constant state of work of an online business. 

I have been painting and making new wire trees but I am falling behind on listing new stuff. I have several paintings finished that are not listed.  I still have some rubber chainmaille patterns that are not listed.  I have several new sets of fridge magnets not listed. 😕

The Pre-Valentine's Sale is already scheduled and I need to make new graphics, banners, and online signs for facebook, instagram, etsy, etc.  I guess I could use last year's but people might notice. 😁

Although I do still love this one. 😎

The ODR nightmare. . .

I am not a fan of the new ODR system on etsy.  

I understand that they are looking for ways to make the site and sellers seem more trustworthy and judging customer service and setting standards seems like a good idea.

However, as a low volume/small shop I have to point out the incredible unfairness of the current system and standards and why it's not fair to judge everyone the same way.

Let me start with the basic it's on a rolling 60 day time-frame that is 30 days behind, so it's not exactly a "current" thing, which can be both good and/or bad depending on the situation. 

In the case of my shop, end of September was when etsy screwed up PL converting it to "advertising" and I turned it off, the month of October was completely deadsville.  😞  So currently my ODR is based on a single order, if that 1 person were to complain my ODR would go from zero to 100%.  😵  Think about that. . . .

Now I have had orders since but only like 5, I think, between Black Friday and Christmas, again I am a small/low volume shop.  So even if it were 1 complain out of 5 orders mathematically that's 20% still incredibly high in percentage form.  😨

Now I am currently safe because if you look at the 3 criteria :

For shops otherwise compliant with Etsy’s policies and expectations, warnings will only be sent if a shop meets all of the following criteria:

• The shop’s Order Dissatisfaction Rate that is 1% or higher
• The shop has three or more orders with a case or low review since its first sale
• The shop has two or more orders placed within a 60 day evaluation period that resulted in a case or low review 

I have never had a single case or low review since my shop opened years ago, but I can understand how other shops have not been so lucky. 😕😢  So that middle criteria of as least 3 issues since first sale is currently saving my A$$.  However, one day that may not be that case and at that point of course my ODR will be above 1% because mathematically for my shop it's completely unrealistic, I will never have the volume of sales to offset an issue.  😐

Holiday season wrapping up. . .

As the 2019 year is coming to a close I am trying to think of things to improve for 2020.  However, after doing this year end review and planning for next year multiple years in a row I am running out of new ideas.  I will have to continue to work on re-doing photos, my least favorite thing but I still have older listings that have yet to get their new photos. 😕  I plan to expand the barrette selection, hopefully in sizes and chain patterns.  I want to try a few new designs for hat pins, broaches maybe. 😏  

Since A.C.Moore stores are closing I plan to ditch that marketplace, I am seriously disappointed in their lack of advertising, their social media efforts are pretty lame and I totally suck at it so I know. 😅  I am thinking of keeping zibbet as a channel and as soon as it becomes available get rid of ACM and swap in something else, because I paid a whole year up front.  

Oh the irony. . .

For years I have been reading in the forums as many sellers advised each other to just move out the ship date when cancelling an order to prevent the buyer from leaving negative feedback.  😕  I have seen many many many sellers advise this many many many times over my years on etsy, it is pretty standard advice, sadly.

I, however, have always had a bit of an ethical problem with this advice because regularly the seller asking how to stop the bad reviews is purely focused on maintaining their own perfect 5 star record and not at all concerned with what went wrong, why the buyer is unhappy, why their customer service sucked so bad the buyer asked to cancel.  Not that I think all cancellations are the fault of the seller, many of them are the buyers doing, not reading processing times, not reading descriptions, not providing personalization information needed to complete the order.

I found it really ironic reading the forums today to see a long time seller, that I know has given this advice before, complaining about poor customer service from other shops and not being able to leave feedback during a cancellation because the shop that is failing to ship has pulled this "move the ship date" BS to prevent the review. 😏  Then the ensuing discussion about why cancellations don't factor into the new ODR (order dissatisfaction rate) and how etsy needs better/more accurate reason selections for cancellations. The discussion included some saying "well at least shops like this will be caught out by the new ODR" but in reality they won't because cancellations don't count and moving the shipping date to prevent reviews means no negative reviews to count, and cancellations prevent cases too.  

So while the new ODR is meant to improve customer service, I suspect that it will only increase some sellers bad behaviors and those sellers who pull this ultimate BS move will have no problems while honest sellers who try to work with buyers will end up being the ones punished.  😔

Since cancellations do not count in the ODR and missing shipping dates and being over-due does not count, really the only thing that does count are cases and reviews, which is in no way a complete picture of a shops customer service. 

I just can't do it. . .

I simply cannot craft every day.  

RainbowMaille, art and making things is only 1 facet of my life.  I have husband, and a house to keep clean.  I have 3 cats begging for attention, play and lap time.  I have to do all the grocery shopping and meal planning, which with my gluten free diet does take considerable time and energy.  

Yesterday, I considered painting because my easel is clear but I had a list of other things to do first, paying bills, balance checkbook, ship order, grocery shopping, etc.  So I did all the other things which included making multiple batches of gluten free noodles to freeze, baking the last of the chocolate chip cookie dough and a bunch of cleaning.  😏  Not a creative day, but a productive day. 

Today I plan to work on a wire tree I have in progress, but I doubt I'll actually get it finished because it's a 7 inch and I can only hold the awkwardness with the wires sticking out all over for a limited time before my hands cramp up.  😕  

Blue and silver and butterflies with a cute little fairy door in the trunk and a bit of a double canopy, I think this one will be really cool when it's finished, in a few days. 😉